Every price you see has a cut already baked into it. If you never measure that cut, you are comparing things that are not comparable.
Take the three prices, invert each, and add them up:
margin = (1/home + 1/draw + 1/away) - 1If the sum were exactly 1.00, the book would be taking nothing. In practice it always sits above 1.00, and the difference is the margin.
| Match | Prices | Sum | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Example A | 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.60 | 1.0481 | 4.81% |
| Example B | 2.00 / 3.50 / 4.00 | 1.0357 | 3.57% |
| Example C | 1.60 / 4.00 / 5.50 | 1.0568 | 5.68% |
A margin near 2% is a sharp book. Above 6% you are paying a lot for the privilege of being allowed to bet.
Here is the part that surprises people. The margin is not spread evenly across the three outcomes. In some price ranges the outsider carries far more of it than the favourite does.
If you compare prices by looking at the headline number alone, you can end up backing the side that is carrying almost all of the cut.
Before you compare two books on a match, normalise both to fair prices. Then the comparison means something. A price of 3.00 at one book and 3.05 at another are not the same bet if the margins around them differ.